• Contact Us
  • Events calendar
Entering Swellesley
Pinnacle, Wellesley

The Swellesley Report

More than you really want to know about Wellesley, Mass.

  • Advertise
  • Business index
  • Contribute
  • Wellesley Square
  • Private schools
  • Camp
  • Eat
  • Schools
  • Top 10 things to do
  • Embracing diversity
  • Kids
  • About us
  • Events
  • Natick Report
  • COVID-19
  • Letters to the Editor
  • Athlete of the Week
  • Seniors
Needham Bank, Wellesley
Write Ahead, Wellesley

Wellesley number cruncher rates Patriots’ chances to win Super Bowl

January 31, 2019 by Bob Brown Leave a Comment

Babson College has passed along the following analysis of the New England Patriots’ chances to win Super Bowl LIII from business analytics Prof. Rick Cleary:

Babson College Prof. Rick ClearyWhat are the chances the Patriots will win the Super Bowl?  Your answer to that question depends on what you think is important background information.  Here are four different ways to look at the game:

-If you think the Las Vegas odds and betting line are good predictors, then you think that the Patriots have a little better than 50% chance of winning.  A 2.5 point favorite wins their NFL game about 55% of the time.

-If you think experience matters, there have been 23 SuperBowls since the AFL/NFL merger in which one team has appeared in at least one Super Bowl in the previous five years (like the Patriots have) and the other team has not (like the Rams this year.)  The experienced team has won 14 of those 23 games, or 61%.

-Nervous because the Rams (13-3) had a better regular season record than the Pats (11-5)?  In the last 10 Super Bowl there were three in which the teams had the same regular season record.  But in the other seven the team with the better regular season record lost five times! 

-If you want to give the Rams the edge, can you find some data that supports your pick?  Sure! ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is one of the most sophisticated and time tested models in the business and if gives the Rams a 51% chance of winning.  

Some might think that these are examples that “you can prove anything with statistics”, but to those of us study analytics, all of the above are mere suggestions.  We look hard at how reliable various predictors are, how large a sample they are based on, and how well the conditions match the current game.  

My own bottom line?  Any reasonable analysis suggests this is a very close game.  Looking at all the models as an “ensemble” we might make the Patriots slight favorites, with their probability of winning just a little over 50%.  Of course last year looking at similar evidence I said their probability of winning was 65%.  The Eagles had different ideas.

Subscribe to get Swellesley’s daily email newsletter
Here’s how to Advertise and/or Donate to support our independent journalism venture

Please follow us on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter

print

Share

Filed Under: Babson College, Business, Sports

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

You have to agree to the comment policy.

Linden Square, Wellesley
Dedham Country Day School

Tip us off…

Please send tips, photos, ideas to [email protected]om

 

Advertisements

Wellesley Square
Wellesley, Jesamondo
Edge on Science
Sexton test prep
Feldman Law
Fay School, Southborough
Wellesley Theatre Project
Volvo
Cheesy Street Grill
Admit Fit, Wellesley
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • Twitter
Never miss a post with our free daily Swellesley Report email
Name: 
Your email address:*
Please wait...
Please enter all required fields Click to hide
Correct invalid entries Click to hide

You can subscribe for free, though we appreciate any contribution that supports our independent journalism.

Click on Entering Natick sign to read our Natick Report

Entering Natick road sign

Most Read Posts

  • Wellesley Business Buzz: Merchants raise 'Parking, parking, parking' concerns in Wellesley Square; Lockheart Restaurant sign goes up
  • Wellesley public works taking fresh look at RDF give-and-take area
  • You might wanna sit down before you open that Wellesley tax bill
  • Wellesley Select Board office hours
  • Wellesley book news: Couple takes part in Nantucket Book Fair; Journalists coming to town to tout books

Upcoming Events

Jul 6
10:00 am - 11:00 am

Open House at Boston Outdoor Preschool Network

Jul 16
9:30 am - 4:30 pm

Wellesley Square July Jubilation Sidewalk Sale

Jul 19
8:00 am - 9:00 am

Fay School admission information session

Jul 20
10:00 am - 11:00 am

Tour at Boston Outdoor Preschool Network

Aug 12
12:00 pm - 1:00 pm

Fay School admission information session

View Calendar

Popular pages

  • Wellesley’s 7 official scenic roads

Recent Comments

  • J. Staffier on Supporters gather to wish all the best to retiring asst. fire chief Jeff Peterson
  • Dennis McCormick on Wellesley public works taking fresh look at RDF give-and-take area
  • Mary Bowers on Supporters gather to wish all the best to retiring asst. fire chief Jeff Peterson
  • Ian on Wellesley Business Buzz: Merchants raise ‘Parking, parking, parking’ concerns in Wellesley Square; Lockheart Restaurant sign goes up
  • Katalin on Wellesley public works taking fresh look at RDF give-and-take area

Links we like

  • Great Runs
  • Jack Sanford: Wellesley's Major League Baseball Star
  • Taquitos.net
  • Tech-Tamer
  • The Wellesley Wine Press
  • Universal Hub
  • Wellesley Sports Discussion Facebook Group

Categories

  • 2021 Town Election (24)
  • Animals (416)
  • Antiques (49)
  • Art (577)
  • Beyond Wellesley (47)
  • Books (366)
  • Business (1,503)
  • Camp (11)
  • Careers/jobs (48)
  • Churches (79)
  • Clubs (229)
  • Construction (295)
  • Dump (127)
  • Education (3,109)
    • Babson College (250)
    • Bates Elementary School (16)
    • Dana Hall School (34)
    • Fiske Elementary School (9)
    • Hardy Elementary School (44)
    • Hunnewell Elementary School (42)
    • MassBay (55)
    • Schofield Elementary School (24)
    • Sprague Elementary School (19)
    • St. John School (2)
    • Tenacre Country Day School (11)
    • Upham Elementary School (35)
    • Wellesley College (608)
    • Wellesley High School (962)
    • Wellesley Middle School (203)
  • Embracing diversity (69)
  • Entertainment (788)
  • Environment (749)
  • Fashion (141)
  • Finance (14)
  • Fire (163)
  • Food (344)
  • Fundraising (612)
  • Gardens (157)
  • Government (558)
    • 2020 Town Election (47)
    • 2022 Town Election (14)
  • Health (850)
    • COVID-19 (200)
  • Hikes (3)
  • History (388)
  • Holidays (406)
  • Houses (154)
  • Humor (47)
  • Kids (850)
  • Law (8)
  • Legal notices (6)
  • Letters to the Editor (62)
  • Media (70)
  • METCO (4)
  • Military (11)
  • Morses Pond (108)
  • Music (568)
  • Natick Report (29)
  • Neighbors (273)
  • Obituaries & remembrances (73)
  • Outdoors (642)
  • Parenting (62)
  • Police (757)
    • Crime (386)
  • Politics (551)
  • POPS Senior Profile (9)
  • RDF (6)
  • Real estate (331)
  • Religion (131)
  • Restaurants (332)
  • Safety (151)
  • Scouts (2)
  • Seniors (120)
  • Shopping (144)
  • Sponsored (6)
  • Sports (980)
    • Athlete of the Week (6)
  • STEM (107)
  • Technology (164)
  • Theatre (392)
  • Town Meeting (23)
  • Transportation (230)
  • Travel (17)
  • Uncategorized (1,230)
  • Volunteering (346)
  • Weather (177)
  • Wellesley Election 2019 (21)
  • Wellesley Free Library (276)
  • Wellesley's Wonderful Weekend (19)
RSS Feed Icon Subscribe to RSS Feed
Deland, Gibson Insurance, Wellesley

© 2022 The Swellesley Report
Site by Tech-Tamer · Login